Norway's 2026 Atlantic mackerel fishing season has officially started, with opening quotes expected to rise. Japanese buyers are concerned that CFR prices may break through USD 6/kg and have begun shifting their procurement focus to domestic raw materials. Japan's import volume in June was only 1,086 tonnes, with a cumulative decline of 44%. Domestic Pacific mackerel landing prices in July soared 146% to a record JPY 231/kg, but small fish under 300g dominate the catch, and largesize supply is tight. Norway's July exports increased 22% year-on-year, with average prices up 61%; the Korean market saw the largest increase. The market is now focusing on Norway's opening price positioning and the purchasing intentions of all parties.

With Norway's 2026 Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) fishing season officially underway, its largest end-market, Japan, is experiencing a critical moment of supplydemand negotiation. Old-season fish prices remained stable at low levels, while opening quotes for the new season are expected to rise. Japanese buyers are generally concerned that CFR prices may break through USD 6/kg and have already begun shifting procurement to domestic Pacific mackerel raw materials. At the same time, domestic Pacific mackerel landing prices surged 146% to a record July high, with small-sized fish dominating, further intensifying the raw material dilemma for processors. Norwegian exports saw both volume and price increases during the off-season, but Japan's import volume remains far below the previous season, with a cumulative decline of 44%.

New Season Fishing Starts, Opening Quotes Become Market Focus

Norway's 2026 Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) fishing season officially began in late August. Two large purse seiner vessels are expected to land their first catches as early as August 24, with fish sizes concentrated around 520-540g, continuing last year's trend of larger-size fish. Japanese importers are wary of signs that Norwegian processors will seek higher prices. Industry price assessment agencies maintained their August price assessments for the 400-600g size grade, unchanged from July. Iceland has set a high benchmark for the market, with new-season quotes exceeding USD 5.00/kg CFR – a historical high – but buyers remain on the sidelines. The market generally believes that the key variables are the positioning of Norway's opening quotes and the actual purchasing willingness of various markets. If both Eastern European and Asian buyers remain cautious, the auction prices Norwegian processors pay to fishermen may face downward pressure.

Japanese Buyers Shift to Domestic Raw Materials, Imports Continue to Shrink

Faced with high import prices, Japanese importers and processors are accelerating strategy adjustments. A Tokyo importer explicitly stated that they have submitted proposals to retailers based primarily on domestic raw materials. Japanese buyers estimate that direct procurement volumes shipped to Japan from the 2025 season were about 24,000-25,000 tonnes, with another ~20,000 tonnes processed in Vietnam and 14,000 tonnes processed in China. However, in June 2026, Japan's imports of frozen Norwegian Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) were only 1,086 tonnes, down 2% year-on-year. Since the arrival of new-season fish in September 2025, cumulative imports fell 44% year-on-year, while average import prices rose 65%. The bone-out fillet market processed in China and Vietnam is also under pressure: although discount selling has largely ceased, domestic selling prices need to reach JPY 1,800-2,000/kg to avoid losses, while sluggish end-sales have led to increased finished-goods inventories, leaving limited room for price increases.

Domestic Pacific Mackerel Prices Hit Record High, Supply-Demand Imbalance Intensifies

Japan's domestic Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) market is experiencing unprecedented price surges. July landings were 13,328 tonnes, down 23% year-on-year, but the average landing price soared 146% to JPY 231/kg, a record high for July. Cumulative landings from January to July totalled 138,385 tonnes, down 3% year-on-year, while average prices rose 83% to JPY 205/kg. Current catches are concentrated in the Tsushima Strait off western Japan, with landings from the Pacific side still sporadic. Due to a scarcity of horse mackerel, recent catches are dominated by mackerel, but small fish under 300g account for the majority of landings, and large-size supply is tight, further limiting processors' raw material options. Japan's frozen mackerel inventories at the end of May stood at 74,056 tonnes, up 4% year-on-year, but the inventory structure is changing – the share of imported Atlantic mackerel is declining while the share of domestic Pacific mackerel is rising. According to the Norwegian Seafood Council, Norway's frozen mackerel exports in July increased 22% year-on-year in volume, with average export prices up 61% year-on-year. However, the Korean market saw the largest increase, with shipments of 2,312 tonnes and export value up NOK 116 million year-on-year.

Fishing E Buy Information & In-Depth Thinking

In 2026, Japan's Atlantic mackerel market is witnessing an intense game between "supply-contracted pricing" and "demand price elasticity." Norway's quota cut of 51% combined with Iceland's 68% reduction has sharply tightened raw material supply, with CFR quotes expected to exceed USD 6/kg. However, Japan's end-consumption remains persistently weak, with retail sales down 60-70%, as consumers switch to domestic Pacific mackerel and herring as substitutes. Processors face a severe mismatch between raw material costs and retail prices. Japanese importers have begun strategically reducing purchases of Norwegian mackerel and shifting to domestic raw materials, which may lead to a halving of Japan's direct imports in 2026. For Chinese industry participants, Vietnam is leveraging its tarifffree advantage to capture processing share, but if Chinese processors can establish strengths in quality and cost control, they may still seize structural opportunities in Japan's "consumption downgrade" trend. In the medium to long term, uncertainties in Northeast Atlantic mackerel resource management (MSC certification has been suspended for over six years) and the restructuring of global supply chains will transform the mackerel trade from "quantity" to "quality." Companies with sustainable certification and stable supply capabilities will become more competitive.

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